February 2026 cmmc outlook

Fourteen months into CMMC 2.0, ecosystem growth is steady — but not accelerating fast enough to meet the coming demand surge.

Companies that achieve CMMC certification before Phase 2 of the government's phased rollout have a significant competitive advantage.

With Level 2 (C3PAO) requirements expected to hit new contracts in nine months, here’s where the market stands:

full compliance Projection: october 2030

supply chain pressure is building

We have yet to cross 1% of full compliance.

That matters.

As contract requirements expand later this year, limited certified supplier availability will begin impacting both prime and subcontractor competitiveness.

Why Progress Remains Constrained

Certification output is driven by two variables:

• Assessor capacity
• Contractor readiness

In February:

125 certifications were completed.
But the ecosystem had capacity for 1,496.

That’s just:

8% capacity utilization

And this is not a one-month anomaly — average utilization has remained below 10% since program activation.

The bottleneck isn’t just the number of assessors.
It’s a general lack of readiness that forces assessors to focus on advisory roles and mock assessments, further reducing capacity.

Schedule a complimentary call with one of our advisors to discuss your compliance strategy.